United States Dual-Use Technology Assessment Report

Date: 2025-06-08

Executive Summary

The United States maintains a leading global position in the research, development, and deployment of dual-use technologies, particularly in areas such as artificial-intelligence, quantum-computing, robotics, additive-manufacturing (including 3d-printing and 3d-printing-for-manufacturing), cybersecurity, and sustainable-materials. The nation’s innovation ecosystem is driven by a robust combination of world-class universities, advanced research institutes, agile startups, and established technology firms, many of which are included in the organisations reviewed in this report.

The U.S. government, through both direct investment and policy initiatives, continues to prioritize these dual-use technologies for their critical role in national security, economic competitiveness, and industrial modernization. However, challenges persist, including supply chain vulnerabilities, talent shortages, regulatory uncertainty, and intensifying global competition—particularly from China and the European Union.

This report provides a comprehensive assessment of the United States’ current performance and trajectory across key dual-use technologies, referencing the contributions of leading organisations and highlighting both strengths and areas for improvement.

Strengths

1. Advanced Research Ecosystem

The U.S. benefits from a dense network of research universities and institutes, including Carnegie Mellon University (CMU), Stanford University, Rice University, Georgia Institute of Technology, and the Wyss Institute for Biologically Inspired Engineering. These institutions drive foundational research in artificial-intelligence, robotics, quantum-computing, biomimicry, and smart-materials, often in close collaboration with government agencies and industry.

2. Vibrant Startup and Scaleup Landscape

A dynamic startup ecosystem, exemplified by organisations such as Anduril Industries, Shield AI, Figure AI, Apptronik, Ambercycle, Atom Computing, PsiQuantum, QuEra Computing, Rigetti Computing, and Boston Micro Fabrication, accelerates the translation of research into deployable dual-use solutions. These firms are at the forefront of autonomous-drones, ai-powered-cybersecurity, sustainable-materials, quantum-computing, and 3d-printing-for-manufacturing.

3. Government Support and Strategic Investment

Federal initiatives, including the CHIPS and Science Act, National Quantum Initiative, and Department of Defense (DoD) innovation programs, have catalyzed significant investment in quantum-computing, artificial-intelligence, cybersecurity, and smart-manufacturing. Agencies such as DARPA, NSF, and DOE provide sustained funding and facilitate technology transition for dual-use applications.

4. Leadership in AI and Autonomy

The U.S. is a global leader in artificial-intelligence and machine-learning, with organisations like Anthropic, Virtue AI, Covariant, SurePath AI, Applied Intuition, and Chef Robotics developing advanced AI models, autonomous systems, and automated design tools. The integration of AI into autonomous-drones (e.g., Shield AI, Saronic Technologies, PteroDynamics) and predictive-maintenance (e.g., AssetWatch, MaintainX, Novity) is particularly notable.

5. Robust Cybersecurity Capabilities

The U.S. cybersecurity sector is highly advanced, with companies such as Armis Security, Claroty, Cribl, Cyera, Jericho Security, ReliaQuest, and Socket delivering state-of-the-art cybersecurity-solutions, including ai-powered-cybersecurity, data-analytics, and internet-of-things-iot security.

6. Innovation in Advanced Manufacturing and Materials

Organisations like 3DEO, Boston Micro Fabrication, Fortius Metals, Zeda Inc., and Lyten are pioneering advances in additive-manufacturing, 3d-printing-for-manufacturing, smart-materials, and biodegradable-plastics. The U.S. leads in the development of smart-manufacturing platforms and the adoption of sustainable-materials.

Weaknesses

1. Supply Chain Vulnerabilities

Despite domestic innovation, the U.S. remains dependent on foreign suppliers for critical components (e.g., rare earths, advanced semiconductors, specialty chemicals) necessary for quantum-computing, smart-sensors, and robotics. This creates potential chokepoints in the event of geopolitical disruption.

2. Talent Shortages

There is a persistent shortage of STEM talent, particularly in quantum-computing, artificial-intelligence, and cybersecurity. While top universities produce world-class graduates, demand outpaces supply, and immigration policies have sometimes limited access to global talent.

3. Regulatory and Ethical Uncertainty

Rapid advances in AI (e.g., Anthropic, Virtue AI), biomimicry, and blockchain (e.g., Consensys, Unstoppable Domains) outpace regulatory frameworks, creating uncertainty for dual-use applications. Issues around privacy, data use, and export controls can slow innovation and market adoption.

4. Fragmented Technology Transition

While basic research is strong, transitioning technologies from lab to fielded systems remains a challenge. Startups and university spinouts often face “valleys of death” in scaling and securing government contracts, despite programs like AFWERX and DIU.

5. International Competition

China and the EU are rapidly closing the gap in quantum-computing, artificial-intelligence, robotics, and sustainable-materials, often leveraging state subsidies, coordinated industrial policy, and aggressive talent recruitment.

Notable Programmes & Investments

1. Quantum Computing Initiatives

• USC-Lockheed Martin Quantum Computing Center, Georgia Tech Quantum Institute, IonQ, PsiQuantum, QuEra Computing, and Rigetti Computing are advancing quantum hardware, algorithms, and applications for both defense and commercial use.
• The National Quantum Initiative Act and associated funding have enabled multi-institutional consortia, workforce development, and public-private partnerships.

2. AI and Autonomous Systems

• Anduril Industries, Shield AI, Saronic Technologies, Figure AI, Apptronik, and Covariant are developing next-generation autonomous-drones, unmanned ground vehicles, and AI-driven robotics for ISR, logistics, and security.
• Applied Intuition and Chef Robotics are leading in AI-enabled simulation, testing, and deployment for autonomous vehicles and industrial automation.

3. Advanced Manufacturing and Materials

• 3DEO, Boston Micro Fabrication, Fortius Metals, Zeda Inc., and Rice Advanced Materials Institute are leaders in additive-manufacturing, 3d-printing-for-manufacturing, smart-materials, and biodegradable-plastics.
• The Manufacturing USA network and DoD’s Manufacturing Innovation Institutes have accelerated technology adoption and workforce upskilling.

4. Cybersecurity and IoT Security

• Armis Security, Claroty, ReliaQuest, Jericho Security, Socket, and Bastille Networks deliver advanced ai-powered-cybersecurity, internet-of-things-iot security, and threat intelligence platforms.
• Carnegie Mellon CyLab and Georgia Tech School of Cybersecurity and Privacy provide foundational research and training.

5. Sustainable Technologies

• Ambercycle, Lyten, SanaHeal, Soarce Inc., and university labs (e.g., Biodesign Institute at Arizona State University) are innovating in sustainable-materials, biodegradable-plastics, and biomimicry for both civilian and defense applications.

6. Blockchain and Secure Data

• Consensys and Unstoppable Domains are pioneering decentralized identity, secure data sharing, and blockchain-based supply chain solutions.

Competitive Comparison

United States vs. China

• AI & Autonomy: The U.S. retains an edge in foundational AI research and high-end autonomy, but China is rapidly scaling AI deployment, especially for surveillance and military C4ISR.
• Quantum Computing: U.S. firms (IonQ, PsiQuantum, Rigetti Computing) lead in hardware and algorithms, but China is investing heavily in quantum communications and government applications.
• Advanced Manufacturing: The U.S. is strong in high-mix, low-volume additive manufacturing (3DEO, Boston Micro Fabrication), while China dominates mass production and supply chains.
• Cybersecurity: U.S. companies are global leaders in ai-powered-cybersecurity, but face persistent threats from Chinese state actors.

United States vs. European Union

• Regulation: The EU leads in privacy and ethical AI regulation, but the U.S. is more agile in commercializing and deploying dual-use tech.
• Sustainability: The EU has a stronger policy push for sustainable-materials and circular economy, but U.S. startups (Ambercycle, Lyten) are catching up.
• Research: The U.S. maintains a lead in basic research and university-industry collaboration.

Opportunities for Collaboration / Export

1. Allied Technology Partnerships

• Deepen R&D collaboration with NATO, Five Eyes, and Quad partners in quantum-computing, cybersecurity, artificial-intelligence, and robotics.
• Joint ventures and co-development programs can accelerate technology maturation and interoperability.

2. Export of Dual-Use Platforms

• U.S. companies (Anduril Industries, Shield AI, Apptronik, Chef Robotics) can expand exports of autonomous-drones, robotics, and AI-enabled security platforms to trusted allies, subject to ITAR and export controls.

3. Standards and Interoperability

• Lead in setting global standards for ai-powered-cybersecurity, blockchain, internet-of-things-iot, and smart-manufacturing to shape international markets and ensure security.

4. Talent and Knowledge Exchange

• Expand international fellowships, joint degree programs, and cross-border startup incubators to attract and retain global talent.

Risks & Mitigation

1. Technology Transfer and IP Theft

• Risk: Espionage and unauthorized tech transfer to adversaries, especially in quantum-computing, artificial-intelligence, and cybersecurity.
• Mitigation: Strengthen CFIUS reviews, export controls, and cybersecurity for sensitive R&D.

2. Supply Chain Disruption

• Risk: Overreliance on foreign suppliers for critical materials and components.
• Mitigation: Incentivize domestic production, diversify suppliers, and invest in materials science (e.g., Rice Advanced Materials Institute, Lyten).

3. Regulatory Lag and Fragmentation

• Risk: Regulatory uncertainty hinders commercialization and international competitiveness.
• Mitigation: Develop agile, risk-based regulatory frameworks for AI, blockchain, and autonomous systems.

4. Talent Shortages

• Risk: Insufficient workforce for scaling dual-use technologies.
• Mitigation: Invest in STEM education, immigration reform, and public-private training partnerships (e.g., with Carnegie Mellon University, Georgia Institute of Technology).

5. Erosion of Innovation Ecosystem

• Risk: Declining federal R&D investment or restrictive policies could undermine the innovation base.
• Mitigation: Sustain and expand funding for basic and applied research, and support technology transition programs.

Outlook (5-year)

The United States is poised to maintain its leadership in dual-use technologies through at least 2030, provided current investment and policy trajectories continue. Key trends and projections include:

• AI & Autonomy: Widespread adoption of AI-enabled autonomous systems in defense, logistics, and critical infrastructure, with U.S. firms (Anduril Industries, Shield AI, Figure AI, Apptronik) leading deployment.
• Quantum Computing: Transition from laboratory prototypes to early commercial and defense applications, with continued progress from IonQ, PsiQuantum, QuEra Computing, and university consortia.
• Advanced Manufacturing: Expansion of additive-manufacturing and 3d-printing-for-manufacturing for rapid prototyping, spare parts, and bespoke components, with increased use of smart-materials and biodegradable-plastics.
• Cybersecurity: Proliferation of ai-powered-cybersecurity and advanced threat detection platforms, with U.S. companies setting global benchmarks.
• Sustainability: Acceleration of sustainable-materials and circular economy solutions, driven by startups (Ambercycle, Lyten) and university research.
• Challenges: The U.S. must address supply chain risks, talent shortages, and regulatory adaptation to sustain its edge. International competition will intensify, but U.S. strengths in innovation, entrepreneurship, and alliances provide a durable advantage.

In summary, the United States remains the global pacesetter in dual-use technology innovation, with a strong foundation for future growth and security, provided persistent challenges are addressed through coordinated public and private action.